SUD America 1–0 Central Espanol: Result & Stats

SUD America

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Central Espanol

J. Perdomo 90'

9/14/2020

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Charrúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

SUD America35%

×Draw28%

Central Espanol37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SUD AmericaExpected goals in this matchCentral Espanol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.19

SUD America

1.16

Central Espanol

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 87 away

1.03

creates per match

1.13

1.25

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

SUD America

1.03

Central Espanol

1.13

allows per match

SUD America

1.25

Central Espanol

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SUD America+0.00on par

Central Espanol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SUD America ↓

Central Espanol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

SUD America or draw

63%

SUD America or Central Espanol

72%

Draw or Central Espanol

65%

Winning margin

SUD America wins by 2+

15%

Central Espanol wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SUD America 1+ goals

69%

SUD America 2+ goals

32%

SUD America 3+ goals

11%

Central Espanol 1+ goals

70%

Central Espanol 2+ goals

33%

Central Espanol 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SUD America (draw refunded)

49%

Central Espanol (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SUD America at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 68 matches

Central Espanol away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SUD America attack 1.03 + Central Espanol defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Central Espanol attack 1.13 + SUD America defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SUD America scores more

35%

level

28%

Central Espanol scores more

37%

Central Espanol at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Central Espanol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

J. Pereyra← I. Panzariello

66'

J. Ramírez← A. Barán

66'

S. Bellini← G. Sacarelo

72'

F. Pérez← I. Casas

78'

Á. Santeyano← P. Olivera

78'

J. Perdomo← B. Ferreira

84'

G. Poncet← M. Camarda

90'

J. Perdomo

SUD

Central

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: O. Pérez

66'▲J. Pereyra←▼I. Panzariello

66'▲J. Ramírez←▼A. Barán

78'▲Á. Santeyano←▼P. Olivera

78'▲J. Perdomo←▼B. Ferreira

84'▲G. Poncet←▼M. Camarda

SUD America substitutes

PereyraRamírezSanteyanoPerdomoPoncetLópezYantornoMartínezTriunfoPerdomo

Manager: J. Gonçalves

66'▲S. Bellini←▼G. Sacarelo

72'▲F. Pérez←▼I. Casas

Central Espanol substitutes

BelliniPérezAmaroTrujilloAraújoCostaMoreiraSilvaCortizasZipitría