SUD America 0–2 Albion FC: Result & Stats

SUD America

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Albion FC

P. González 47'

F. García 40' (pen)

11/24/2020

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio Charrúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

SUD America33%

×Draw29%

Albion FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SUD AmericaExpected goals in this matchAlbion FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.18

SUD America

1.07

Albion FC

1.18

Albion FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 94 away

1.03

creates per match

1.10

1.25

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

SUD America

1.03

Albion FC

1.10

allows per match

SUD America

1.25

Albion FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SUD America+0.00on par

Albion FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SUD America ↓

Albion FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SUD America or draw

62%

SUD America or Albion FC

71%

Draw or Albion FC

67%

Winning margin

SUD America wins by 2+

13%

Albion FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SUD America 1+ goals

66%

SUD America 2+ goals

29%

SUD America 3+ goals

9%

Albion FC 1+ goals

69%

Albion FC 2+ goals

33%

Albion FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SUD America (draw refunded)

46%

Albion FC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SUD America at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 68 matches

Albion FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.11 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SUD America attack 1.03 + Albion FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Albion FC attack 1.10 + SUD America defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SUD America scores more

33%

level

29%

Albion FC scores more

38%

Albion FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

F. GarcíaPenalty

46'

J. Perdomo← B. Ferreira

47'

P. González

57'

M. Cantera← L. Morales

58'

C. Yeladián← J. Arretche

58'

F. Viotti← M. López

67'

A. Barán← J. Ramírez

67'

M. Camarda← D. Morales

75'

A. Cayetano

82'

M. Hernández← C. Taján

82'

Y. Burgueño← F. García

89'

N. Brun← P. González

90+1'

B. Ortigoza← I. Panzariello

SUD

Albion

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Viera

46'▲J. Perdomo←▼B. Ferreira

57'▲M. Cantera←▼L. Morales

67'▲A. Barán←▼J. Ramírez

67'▲M. Camarda←▼D. Morales

90+1'▲B. Ortigoza←▼I. Panzariello

SUD America substitutes

PerdomoCanteraBaránCamardaOrtigozaSanteyanoYantornoMartínezTriunfoPerdomo

Manager: D. Gayol

58'▲C. Yeladián←▼J. Arretche

58'▲F. Viotti←▼M. López

82'▲M. Hernández←▼C. Taján

82'▲Y. Burgueño←▼F. García

89'▲N. Brun←▼P. González

Albion FC substitutes

YeladiánViottiHernándezBurgueñoBrunOrradreVargasUránPereiroRolfo

Match Recap: SUD America vs Albion FC

Albion FC beat SUD America 2-0 in Segunda División on November 24, 2020.

Goals: F. García (40' pen), P. González (47').

The match was played at Estadio Charrúa in Montevideo.

SUD America vs Albion FC — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SUD America vs Albion FC