Albion FC 3–0 SUD America: Result & Stats

Albion FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

SUD America

4/7/2024

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 4Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Albion FC42%

×Draw28%

SUD America29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion FCExpected goals in this matchSUD America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.00

Albion FC

1.26

SUD America

1.00

Albion FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 70 away

1.23

creates per match

0.96

1.05

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Albion FC

1.23

SUD America

0.96

allows per match

Albion FC

1.05

SUD America

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion FC+0.00on par

SUD America+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion FC ↓

SUD America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Albion FC or draw

71%

Albion FC or SUD America

72%

Draw or SUD America

58%

Winning margin

Albion FC wins by 2+

19%

SUD America wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Albion FC 1+ goals

72%

Albion FC 2+ goals

36%

Albion FC 3+ goals

13%

SUD America 1+ goals

63%

SUD America 2+ goals

26%

SUD America 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Albion FC (draw refunded)

59%

SUD America (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion FC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

SUD America away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion FC attack 1.23 + SUD America defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

SUD America attack 0.96 + Albion FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Albion FC scores more

42%

level

28%

SUD America scores more

29%

Albion FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff