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Subiza vs Peña Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Subiza
Subiza
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Sport
Peña Sport
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 12Estadio Sotoburu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Subiza47%
×Draw25%
Peña Sport28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Subiza
1.59
Peña Sport
1.18

Subiza creates 35% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 93 away

creates per match

Subiza
1.96
Peña Sport
1.38

allows per match

Subiza
0.98
Peña Sport
1.23

finishing

Subiza+0.00on par
Peña Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiza ↓

Peña Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Subiza or draw
72%
Subiza or Peña Sport
75%
Draw or Peña Sport
53%

Winning margin

Subiza wins by 2+
24%
Peña Sport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Subiza 1+ goals
80%
Subiza 2+ goals
47%
Subiza 3+ goals
21%
Peña Sport 1+ goals
69%
Peña Sport 2+ goals
33%
Peña Sport 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Subiza (draw refunded)
62%
Peña Sport (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Subiza at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

Peña Sport away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Subiza attack 1.96 + Peña Sport defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.59

Peña Sport attack 1.38 + Subiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Subiza scores more
47%
level
25%
Peña Sport scores more
28%

Subiza at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Subiza 4–0 Peña Sport

Subiza beat Peña Sport 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Sotoburu in Subiza.