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Subiza vs Pamplona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Subiza
Subiza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pamplona
Pamplona
10/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 8Estadio Sotoburu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Subiza49%
×Draw25%
Pamplona26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Subiza
1.57
Pamplona
1.06

Subiza creates 48% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 110 away

creates per match

Subiza
1.96
Pamplona
1.15

allows per match

Subiza
0.98
Pamplona
1.19

finishing

Subiza+0.00on par
Pamplona+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiza ↓

Pamplona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Subiza or draw
74%
Subiza or Pamplona
75%
Draw or Pamplona
51%

Winning margin

Subiza wins by 2+
25%
Pamplona wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Subiza 1+ goals
79%
Subiza 2+ goals
46%
Subiza 3+ goals
21%
Pamplona 1+ goals
65%
Pamplona 2+ goals
29%
Pamplona 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Subiza (draw refunded)
66%
Pamplona (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Subiza at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

Pamplona away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Subiza attack 1.96 + Pamplona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.57

Pamplona attack 1.15 + Subiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Subiza scores more
49%
level
25%
Pamplona scores more
26%

Subiza at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Subiza 1–0 Pamplona

Subiza beat Pamplona 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Sotoburu in Subiza.