Subiza 3–1 Murchante: Result & Stats

Subiza

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Murchante

2/12/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 20Estadio Sotoburu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Subiza53%

×Draw24%

Murchante23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SubizaExpected goals in this matchMurchante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.02

Subiza

1.69

Murchante

1.02

Subiza creates 66% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 41 away

1.96

creates per match

1.05

0.98

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Subiza

1.96

Murchante

1.05

allows per match

Subiza

0.98

Murchante

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Subiza+0.00on par

Murchante+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiza ↓

Murchante →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Subiza or draw

77%

Subiza or Murchante

76%

Draw or Murchante

47%

Winning margin

Subiza wins by 2+

29%

Murchante wins by 2+

Team goals

Subiza 1+ goals

82%

Subiza 2+ goals

50%

Subiza 3+ goals

24%

Murchante 1+ goals

64%

Murchante 2+ goals

27%

Murchante 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Subiza (draw refunded)

70%

Murchante (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Subiza at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

Murchante away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Subiza attack 1.96 + Murchante defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.69

Murchante attack 1.05 + Subiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Subiza scores more

53%

level

24%

Murchante scores more

23%

Subiza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff