Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Subiza vs Izarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Subiza
Subizaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Izarra
Izarra
A. Saralegui Nagore 90+2'
5/17/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Subiza45%
×Draw24%
Izarra31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Subiza
1.64
Izarra
1.33

Subiza creates 23% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 19 away

creates per match

Subiza
1.96
Izarra
1.68

allows per match

Subiza
0.98
Izarra
1.32

finishing

Subiza+0.00on par
Izarra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiza ↓

Izarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Subiza or draw
69%
Subiza or Izarra
76%
Draw or Izarra
55%

Winning margin

Subiza wins by 2+
23%
Izarra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Subiza 1+ goals
81%
Subiza 2+ goals
49%
Subiza 3+ goals
23%
Izarra 1+ goals
74%
Izarra 2+ goals
38%
Izarra 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Subiza (draw refunded)
59%
Izarra (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Subiza at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

Izarra away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Subiza attack 1.96 + Izarra defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.64

Izarra attack 1.68 + Subiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Subiza scores more
45%
level
24%
Izarra scores more
31%

Subiza at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
C. Sagues
90+2'
A. Saralegui Nagore

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Subiza vs Izarra

Subiza beat Izarra 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on May 17, 2026.

Goals: A. Saralegui Nagore (90+2').