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Subiza vs El Palo — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Subiza
Subiza
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
El Palo
El Palo
6/4/2023Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsEstadio Sotoburu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Subiza30%
×Draw21%
El Palo49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Subiza
1.67
El Palo
2.17

El Palo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Subiza
3.00
El Palo
1.33

allows per match

Subiza
3.00
El Palo
0.33

finishing

Subiza+0.00on par
El Palo+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiza ↓

El Palo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Subiza or draw
51%
Subiza or El Palo
79%
Draw or El Palo
70%

Winning margin

Subiza wins by 2+
14%
El Palo wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Subiza 1+ goals
81%
Subiza 2+ goals
50%
Subiza 3+ goals
23%
El Palo 1+ goals
89%
El Palo 2+ goals
64%
El Palo 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Subiza (draw refunded)
38%
El Palo (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Subiza at home — creates 3.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

El Palo away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Subiza attack 3.00 + El Palo defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

El Palo attack 1.33 + Subiza defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Subiza scores more
30%
level
21%
El Palo scores more
49%

El Palo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "El Palo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Subiza 1–3 El Palo

El Palo beat Subiza 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Sotoburu in Subiza.