Subiza 3–1 Avance Ezcabarte: Result & Stats

Subiza

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Avance Ezcabarte

10/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 6Estadio Sotoburu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Subiza55%

×Draw24%

Avance Ezcabarte21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SubizaExpected goals in this matchAvance Ezcabarte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.97

Subiza

1.73

Avance Ezcabarte

0.97

Subiza creates 78% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 64 away

1.96

creates per match

0.97

0.98

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Subiza

1.96

Avance Ezcabarte

0.97

allows per match

Subiza

0.98

Avance Ezcabarte

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Subiza+0.00on par

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiza ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Subiza or draw

79%

Subiza or Avance Ezcabarte

76%

Draw or Avance Ezcabarte

45%

Winning margin

Subiza wins by 2+

31%

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+

Team goals

Subiza 1+ goals

82%

Subiza 2+ goals

52%

Subiza 3+ goals

25%

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals

62%

Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals

25%

Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Subiza (draw refunded)

72%

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Subiza at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Subiza attack 1.96 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Subiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Subiza scores more

55%

level

24%

Avance Ezcabarte scores more

21%

Subiza at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff