Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Subiza vs Atlético Artajonés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Subiza
Subiza
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
10/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 6Estadio Sotoburu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Subiza64%
×Draw21%
Atlético Artajonés15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Subiza
1.99
Atlético Artajonés
0.83

Subiza creates 140% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 34 away

creates per match

Subiza
1.96
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

allows per match

Subiza
0.98
Atlético Artajonés
2.03

finishing

Subiza+0.00on par
Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiza ↓

Atlético Artajonés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Subiza or draw
85%
Subiza or Atlético Artajonés
79%
Draw or Atlético Artajonés
36%

Winning margin

Subiza wins by 2+
39%
Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Subiza 1+ goals
86%
Subiza 2+ goals
59%
Subiza 3+ goals
32%
Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
20%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Subiza (draw refunded)
81%
Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Subiza at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Subiza attack 1.96 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.99

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Subiza defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Subiza scores more
64%
level
21%
Atlético Artajonés scores more
15%

Subiza at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Subiza vs Atlético Artajonés

Subiza and Atlético Artajonés drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Sotoburu in Subiza.