Subiaco 0–2 Rockingham City: Result & Stats

Subiaco

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Rockingham City

7/6/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 14Rosalie Park East 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Subiaco53%

×Draw21%

Rockingham City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SubiacoExpected goals in this matchRockingham City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.42

Subiaco

2.10

Rockingham City

1.42

Subiaco creates 48% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

1.47

creates per match

1.27

1.57

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Subiaco

1.47

Rockingham City

1.27

allows per match

Subiaco

1.57

Rockingham City

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Subiaco+0.00on par

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiaco ↓

Rockingham City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Subiaco or draw

74%

Subiaco or Rockingham City

79%

Draw or Rockingham City

47%

Winning margin

Subiaco wins by 2+

31%

Rockingham City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Subiaco 1+ goals

88%

Subiaco 2+ goals

62%

Subiaco 3+ goals

35%

Rockingham City 1+ goals

76%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

41%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Subiaco (draw refunded)

67%

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Subiaco at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Subiaco attack 1.47 + Rockingham City defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.10

Rockingham City attack 1.27 + Subiaco defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Subiaco scores more

53%

level

21%

Rockingham City scores more

26%

Subiaco at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Subiaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff