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Subiaco vs Gwelup Croatia — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Subiaco
Subiaco
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Gwelup Croatia
Gwelup Croatia
5/10/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 7Rosalie Park East 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Subiaco42%
×Draw23%
Gwelup Croatia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Subiaco
1.79
Gwelup Croatia
1.63

Subiaco creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

Subiaco
1.47
Gwelup Croatia
1.69

allows per match

Subiaco
1.57
Gwelup Croatia
2.10

finishing

Subiaco+0.00on par
Gwelup Croatia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiaco ↓

Gwelup Croatia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Subiaco or draw
65%
Subiaco or Gwelup Croatia
77%
Draw or Gwelup Croatia
58%

Winning margin

Subiaco wins by 2+
22%
Gwelup Croatia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Subiaco 1+ goals
83%
Subiaco 2+ goals
53%
Subiaco 3+ goals
26%
Gwelup Croatia 1+ goals
80%
Gwelup Croatia 2+ goals
48%
Gwelup Croatia 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Subiaco (draw refunded)
54%
Gwelup Croatia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Subiaco at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Gwelup Croatia away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Subiaco attack 1.47 + Gwelup Croatia defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.79

Gwelup Croatia attack 1.69 + Subiaco defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Subiaco scores more
42%
level
23%
Gwelup Croatia scores more
35%

Subiaco at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Subiaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Subiaco vs Gwelup Croatia

Gwelup Croatia beat Subiaco 4-2 in Western Australia State League 1 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Rosalie Park East 1 in Shenton Park.