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Subiaco vs ECU Joondalup — Western Australia State League 1 2024

Subiaco
Subiaco
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
ECU Joondalup
ECU Joondalup
8/17/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 20Rosalie Park East 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Subiaco54%
×Draw19%
ECU Joondalup27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Subiaco
2.56
ECU Joondalup
1.79

Subiaco creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

creates per match

Subiaco
1.47
ECU Joondalup
2.00

allows per match

Subiaco
1.57
ECU Joondalup
3.64

finishing

Subiaco+0.00on par
ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Subiaco ↓

ECU Joondalup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Subiaco or draw
73%
Subiaco or ECU Joondalup
81%
Draw or ECU Joondalup
46%

Winning margin

Subiaco wins by 2+
34%
ECU Joondalup wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Subiaco 1+ goals
92%
Subiaco 2+ goals
72%
Subiaco 3+ goals
46%
ECU Joondalup 1+ goals
83%
ECU Joondalup 2+ goals
53%
ECU Joondalup 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Subiaco (draw refunded)
67%
ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Subiaco at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Subiaco attack 1.47 + ECU Joondalup defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.56

ECU Joondalup attack 2.00 + Subiaco defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Subiaco scores more
54%
level
19%
ECU Joondalup scores more
27%

Subiaco at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Subiaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Subiaco vs ECU Joondalup

Subiaco beat ECU Joondalup 4-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Rosalie Park East 1 in Shenton Park.