Sua Flamingoes 2–2 Nico United: Result & Stats

Sua Flamingoes

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Nico United

3/14/2026

League #412

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sua Flamingoes49%

×Draw28%

Nico United24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sua FlamingoesExpected goals in this matchNico United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.88

Sua Flamingoes

1.38

Nico United

0.88

Sua Flamingoes creates 57% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

0.50

1.25

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Sua Flamingoes

2.00

Nico United

0.50

allows per match

Sua Flamingoes

1.25

Nico United

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sua Flamingoes+0.00on par

Nico United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sua Flamingoes ↓

Nico United →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sua Flamingoes or draw

76%

Sua Flamingoes or Nico United

72%

Draw or Nico United

51%

Winning margin

Sua Flamingoes wins by 2+

23%

Nico United wins by 2+

Team goals

Sua Flamingoes 1+ goals

75%

Sua Flamingoes 2+ goals

40%

Sua Flamingoes 3+ goals

16%

Nico United 1+ goals

59%

Nico United 2+ goals

22%

Nico United 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sua Flamingoes (draw refunded)

67%

Nico United (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sua Flamingoes at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Nico United away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sua Flamingoes attack 2.00 + Nico United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Nico United attack 0.50 + Sua Flamingoes defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sua Flamingoes scores more

49%

level

28%

Nico United scores more

24%

Sua Flamingoes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sua Flamingoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff