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Sua Flamingoes vs Matebele — League #412 2026

Sua Flamingoes
Sua Flamingoes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Matebele
Matebele
1/17/2026League #412League #412 · Round 14Sowa Town Council Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sua Flamingoes60%
×Draw22%
Matebele18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sua Flamingoes
1.90
Matebele
0.93

Sua Flamingoes creates 104% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sua Flamingoes
2.00
Matebele
0.60

allows per match

Sua Flamingoes
1.25
Matebele
1.80

finishing

Sua Flamingoes+0.00on par
Matebele+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sua Flamingoes ↓

Matebele →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sua Flamingoes or draw
82%
Sua Flamingoes or Matebele
78%
Draw or Matebele
40%

Winning margin

Sua Flamingoes wins by 2+
35%
Matebele wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sua Flamingoes 1+ goals
85%
Sua Flamingoes 2+ goals
56%
Sua Flamingoes 3+ goals
29%
Matebele 1+ goals
61%
Matebele 2+ goals
24%
Matebele 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sua Flamingoes (draw refunded)
77%
Matebele (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sua Flamingoes at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Matebele away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sua Flamingoes attack 2.00 + Matebele defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Matebele attack 0.60 + Sua Flamingoes defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sua Flamingoes scores more
60%
level
22%
Matebele scores more
18%

Sua Flamingoes at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sua Flamingoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sua Flamingoes vs Matebele

Matebele beat Sua Flamingoes 1-0 in League #412 on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Sowa Town Council Stadium in Sowa.