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Stuttgarter Kickers vs Sandhausen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Stuttgarter Kickers
Stuttgarter Kickers
CANC
13:00
Sandhausen II
Sandhausen II
10/31/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 14GAZİ-Stadion auf der Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stuttgarter Kickers68%
×Draw18%
Sandhausen II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stuttgarter Kickers
2.43
Sandhausen II
1.01

Stuttgarter Kickers creates 141% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 6 away

creates per match

Stuttgarter Kickers
2.69
Sandhausen II
1.33

allows per match

Stuttgarter Kickers
0.69
Sandhausen II
2.17

finishing

Stuttgarter Kickers+0.00on par
Sandhausen II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter Kickers ↓

Sandhausen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stuttgarter Kickers or draw
86%
Stuttgarter Kickers or Sandhausen II
82%
Draw or Sandhausen II
32%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter Kickers wins by 2+
46%
Sandhausen II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stuttgarter Kickers 1+ goals
91%
Stuttgarter Kickers 2+ goals
69%
Stuttgarter Kickers 3+ goals
43%
Sandhausen II 1+ goals
64%
Sandhausen II 2+ goals
27%
Sandhausen II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter Kickers (draw refunded)
83%
Sandhausen II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter Kickers at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

Sandhausen II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter Kickers attack 2.69 + Sandhausen II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.43

Sandhausen II attack 1.33 + Stuttgarter Kickers defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Stuttgarter Kickers scores more
68%
level
18%
Sandhausen II scores more
14%

Stuttgarter Kickers at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Stuttgarter Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stuttgarter Kickers face Sandhausen II (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with Stuttgarter Kickers hosting Sandhausen II. Match starts October 31, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stuttgarter Kickers host Sandhausen II at GAZİ-Stadion auf der Waldau.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.