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Stuttgarter Kickers vs Neckarsulmer SU — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Stuttgarter Kickers
Stuttgarter Kickers
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
H. Eroglu 85'
D. Braig 57', 35'
K. Riehle 47', 41'
E. Godwin 49'
9/24/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 10GAZİ-Stadion auf der Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Stuttgarter Kickers66%
×Draw19%
Neckarsulmer SU15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stuttgarter Kickers
2.23
Neckarsulmer SU
0.96

Stuttgarter Kickers creates 132% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Stuttgarter Kickers
2.69
Neckarsulmer SU
1.24

allows per match

Stuttgarter Kickers
0.69
Neckarsulmer SU
1.76

finishing

Stuttgarter Kickers+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter Kickers ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stuttgarter Kickers or draw
85%
Stuttgarter Kickers or Neckarsulmer SU
81%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
34%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter Kickers wins by 2+
42%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stuttgarter Kickers 1+ goals
89%
Stuttgarter Kickers 2+ goals
65%
Stuttgarter Kickers 3+ goals
38%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
62%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
25%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter Kickers (draw refunded)
81%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter Kickers at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter Kickers attack 2.69 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.23

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + Stuttgarter Kickers defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Stuttgarter Kickers scores more
66%
level
19%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
15%

Stuttgarter Kickers at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Stuttgarter Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
D. Braig
41'
K. Riehle
47'
K. Riehle
49'
E. Godwin
57'
D. Braig
85'
H. Eroglu
88'
J. Grupp
88'
J. Grupp

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Stuttgarter Kickers 5–1 Neckarsulmer SU

Stuttgarter Kickers beat Neckarsulmer SU 5-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 24, 2022.

Goals: D. Braig (35', 57'), K. Riehle (41', 47'), E. Godwin (49'), H. Eroglu (85').

The match was played at GAZİ-Stadion auf der Waldau in Stuttgart.