Stuttgarter Kickers 5–1 Ingolstadt II

Stuttgarter Kickers

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Ingolstadt II

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz SV Stuttgarter Kickers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stuttgarter Kickers77%

×Draw13%

Ingolstadt II10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter KickersExpected goals in this matchIngolstadt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

1.13

Stuttgarter Kickers

3.25

Ingolstadt II

1.13

Stuttgarter Kickers creates 188% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

3.50

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Stuttgarter Kickers

3.50

Ingolstadt II

1.00

allows per match

Stuttgarter Kickers

1.25

Ingolstadt II

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter Kickers+0.00on par

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter Kickers ↓

Ingolstadt II →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–19%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Stuttgarter Kickers or draw

90%

Stuttgarter Kickers or Ingolstadt II

87%

Draw or Ingolstadt II

23%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter Kickers wins by 2+

58%

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+

Team goals

Stuttgarter Kickers 1+ goals

96%

Stuttgarter Kickers 2+ goals

83%

Stuttgarter Kickers 3+ goals

61%

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals

68%

Ingolstadt II 2+ goals

31%

Ingolstadt II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter Kickers (draw refunded)

89%

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter Kickers at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter Kickers attack 3.50 + Ingolstadt II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Ingolstadt II attack 1.00 + Stuttgarter Kickers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Stuttgarter Kickers scores more

77%

level

13%

Ingolstadt II scores more

10%

Stuttgarter Kickers at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Stuttgarter Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff