Stuttgarter Kickers 0–1 Astoria Walldorf II

Stuttgarter Kickers

FT

0 – 1

Astoria Walldorf II

8/7/2021

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1GAZİ-Stadion auf der Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Stuttgarter Kickers66%

×Draw19%

Astoria Walldorf II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter KickersExpected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.02

Stuttgarter Kickers

2.33

Astoria Walldorf II

1.02

Stuttgarter Kickers creates 128% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

2.69

creates per match

1.36

0.69

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Stuttgarter Kickers

2.69

Astoria Walldorf II

1.36

allows per match

Stuttgarter Kickers

0.69

Astoria Walldorf II

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter Kickers+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter Kickers ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stuttgarter Kickers or draw

85%

Stuttgarter Kickers or Astoria Walldorf II

81%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf II

34%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter Kickers wins by 2+

43%

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Stuttgarter Kickers 1+ goals

90%

Stuttgarter Kickers 2+ goals

67%

Stuttgarter Kickers 3+ goals

41%

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals

64%

Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals

27%

Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter Kickers (draw refunded)

81%

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter Kickers at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter Kickers attack 2.69 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.33

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + Stuttgarter Kickers defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Stuttgarter Kickers scores more

66%

level

19%

Astoria Walldorf II scores more

15%

Stuttgarter Kickers at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Stuttgarter Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff