Stuttgarter K'rs U19 4–0 Sportfreunde Siegen U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

M. Sulejmani 90+2'

T. Kleinmann 47'

S. Djokaj 33'

T. Lennerth 20'

5/4/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 12BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1956%

×Draw18%

Sportfreunde Siegen U1926%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchSportfreunde Siegen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.94

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.85

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

1.94

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 7 away

1.56

creates per match

2.00

1.88

allows per match

4.14

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.00

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

4.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Siegen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

74%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Sportfreunde Siegen U19

82%

Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen U19

44%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

37%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

94%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

77%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

53%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1+ goals

86%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2+ goals

58%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Sportfreunde Siegen U19 defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 2.85

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 attack 2.00 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

56%

level

18%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 scores more

26%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Stuttgarter K'rs U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

33'

47'

55'

76'

D. Adrovic← D. Omeragic

80'

M. Benzinger← L. Schnerring

80'

T. Riehle← E. Borgia

88'

T. Tenger← T. Lennerth

88'

C. Cilingir← A. Peci

88'

J. Ghira← M. Zilz

90'

M. Zivkovic← S. Djokaj

90+2'

M. Sulejmani

Stuttgarter

Sportfreunde

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Lennerth

▼

Schnerrin

▼

Borgia

⚽

▼

Djokaj

Manager: S. Ackermann

80'▲M. Benzinger←▼L. Schnerring

80'▲T. Riehle←▼E. Borgia

88'▲T. Tenger←▼T. Lennerth

90'▲M. Zivkovic←▼S. Djokaj

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

BenzingerRiehleTengerZivkovicKöstel

Manager: M. Aslan

55'▲B. Angong←▼H. Nakai

76'▲D. Adrovic←▼D. Omeragic

88'▲C. Cilingir←▼A. Peci

88'▲J. Ghira←▼M. Zilz

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 substitutes

AngongAdrovicCilingirGhiraDulenchuckEngelGarcia