Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2–1 Mainz 05 U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mainz 05 U19

H. Eroğlu 86' (pen)

R. Terpsiadis 45'

D. Kaygin 20'

10/2/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 6BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1925%

×Draw21%

Mainz 05 U1954%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchMainz 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.14

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.40

Mainz 05 U19

2.14

Mainz 05 U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 75 away

1.56

creates per match

2.40

1.88

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Mainz 05 U19

2.40

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Mainz 05 U19

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

46%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Mainz 05 U19

79%

Draw or Mainz 05 U19

75%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

11%

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

75%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

41%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

17%

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

88%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

63%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

25%

level

21%

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

54%

Mainz 05 U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

D. Kaygin

45'

R. Terpsiadis

55'

M. Klöppel← F. Müller

55'

T. Müller← B. Gruda

61'

P. Seemann← A. Babic

67'

M. Heinz← D. Kaygin

71'

M. Roos-Trujillo← D. Schmidt

74'

M. Hudalla← R. Terpsiadis

79'

Y. Mallet← E. Krieger

86'

H. EroğluPenalty

Stuttgarter

Mainz

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Terpsiadi

Manager: M. Ünal

61'▲P. Seemann←▼A. Babic

74'▲M. Hudalla←▼R. Terpsiadis

79'▲Y. Mallet←▼E. Krieger

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

SeemannHudallaMalletEtemiSanozidisGubbeSebastian

Manager: B. Hoffmann

55'▲M. Klöppel←▼F. Müller

55'▲T. Müller←▼B. Gruda

67'▲M. Heinz←▼D. Kaygin

71'▲M. Roos-Trujillo←▼D. Schmidt

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

KlöppelMüllerHeinzRoos-TrujilloKochMartinovicPavisic

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Mainz 05 U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 beat Mainz 05 U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 2, 2021.

Goals: D. Kaygin (20'), R. Terpsiadis (45'), H. Eroğlu (86' pen).

The match was played at BZA Waldau in Stuttgart.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Mainz 05 U19