Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1–0 Eintracht Frankf U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Eintracht Frankf U19

A. Selimi 26'

3/2/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 19BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1932%

×Draw21%

Eintracht Frankf U1947%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Frankf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.08

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.69

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.08

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 74 away

1.56

creates per match

2.28

1.88

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.28

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Eintracht Frankf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

53%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Eintracht Frankf U19

79%

Draw or Eintracht Frankf U19

68%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

16%

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

82%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

50%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

24%

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

87%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

61%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Eintracht Frankf U19 away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.28 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

32%

level

21%

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

47%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

N. Ganaus← K. Nkem

26'

A. Selimi

55'

F. Zorn← N. Orywol

68'

A. Hajdarovic← L. Maric

75'

M. Häuser← Jabez Maleko

85'

G. Gamuzza← E. Kilic

90'

A. Latifovic← A. Selimi

Stuttgarter

Eintracht

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Kovacevic

25'▲N. Ganaus←▼K. Nkem

68'▲A. Hajdarovic←▼L. Maric

85'▲G. Gamuzza←▼E. Kilic

90'▲A. Latifovic←▼A. Selimi

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

GanausHajdarovicGamuzzaLatifovicSelimiWildNujic

Manager: T. Stipić

55'▲F. Zorn←▼N. Orywol

75'▲M. Häuser←▼Jabez Maleko

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

ZornHäuserAlbaneseEngelÇetinStirlSafaridis

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Eintracht Frankf U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 beat Eintracht Frankf U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 2, 2019.

Goals: A. Selimi (26').

The match was played at BZA Waldau in Stuttgart.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Eintracht Frankf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Eintracht Frankf U19