Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3–2 Darmstadt 98 U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Darmstadt 98 U19

M. Mladenovic 90+1'

H. Eroğlu 57' (pen)

M. Lander 22'

J. Sesay 67', 17'

2/6/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 13BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1943%

×Draw22%

Darmstadt 98 U1935%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchDarmstadt 98 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.72

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.91

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.72

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 48 away

1.56

creates per match

1.56

1.88

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.56

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

65%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19

78%

Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19

57%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

23%

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

85%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

57%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

30%

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

82%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

51%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

43%

level

22%

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

35%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stuttgarter K'rs U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Sesay

22'

M. Lander

46'

F. Torsiello← F. Vazquez

57'

H. EroğluPenalty

67'

J. Sesay

79'

B. Hausmann← M. Pilic

79'

C. Sanozidis← P. Seemann

79'

M. Mladenovic← E. Zogjani

82'

M. Feldmann← L. Kaiser

89'

Y. Mallet← B. Etemi

90+1'

M. Mladenovic

Stuttgarter

Darmstadt

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Y. Dreyer

79'▲B. Hausmann←▼M. Pilic

79'▲C. Sanozidis←▼P. Seemann

79'▲M. Mladenovic←▼E. Zogjani

89'▲Y. Mallet←▼B. Etemi

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

HausmannSanozidisMladenovicMalletBiemelGubbeDanquah

Manager: G. Leopold

46'▲F. Torsiello←▼F. Vazquez

82'▲M. Feldmann←▼L. Kaiser

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

TorsielloFeldmannMakatounakisPhlepsenOrrMühligVrban

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 beat Darmstadt 98 U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 6, 2022.

Goals: J. Sesay (17', 67'), M. Lander (22'), H. Eroğlu (57' pen), M. Mladenovic (90+1').

The match was played at BZA Waldau in Stuttgart.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19