Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1–0 Bayern München U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bayern München U19

E. Kilic 65'

3/30/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 21BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1928%

×Draw20%

Bayern München U1952%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.25

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.61

Bayern München U19

2.25

Bayern München U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 72 away

1.56

creates per match

2.63

1.88

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

48%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Bayern München U19

80%

Draw or Bayern München U19

72%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

13%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

80%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

48%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

22%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

89%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

65%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

28%

level

20%

Bayern München U19 scores more

52%

Bayern München U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

J. Herrmann← F. Daniliuc

65'

E. Kilic

67'

T. Profis← E. Nonnenmann

70'

R. Johansson← I. Mihaljevic

80'

G. Gamuzza← K. Nkem

81'

L. Poznanski← A. Lungwitz

90'

A. Latifovic← A. Selimi

90'

L. Maric← B. Cetinkaya

Stuttgarter

Bayern

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Kovacevic

67'▲T. Profis←▼E. Nonnenmann

80'▲G. Gamuzza←▼K. Nkem

90'▲A. Latifovic←▼A. Selimi

90'▲L. Maric←▼B. Cetinkaya

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

ProfisGamuzzaLatifovicMaricSelimiNujicGanaus

Manager: S. Hoeneb

65'▲J. Herrmann←▼F. Daniliuc

70'▲R. Johansson←▼I. Mihaljevic

81'▲L. Poznanski←▼A. Lungwitz

Bayern München U19 substitutes

HerrmannJohanssonPoznanskiWagnerRausch