Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1–1 Astoria Walldorf U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Astoria Walldorf U19

M. Lander 57'

M. Hauswirth 82' (pen)

10/24/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 8BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1949%

×Draw21%

Astoria Walldorf U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.57

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.05

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.57

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

1.94

creates per match

1.26

1.89

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.94

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.26

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.89

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Astoria Walldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

70%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Astoria Walldorf U19

79%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf U19

51%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

28%

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

87%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

61%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

33%

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

79%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

46%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.89 · 36 matches

Astoria Walldorf U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.94 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.05

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.26 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

30%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stuttgarter K'rs U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Belvari← J. Boziaris

57'

M. Lander

63'

L. Gainey← F. Wagner

69'

C. Sanozidis← G. DAleo

71'

P. Seemann← T. Hohloch

79'

E. Zogjani← H. Eroğlu

82'

M. HauswirthPenalty

85'

L. Biemel← A. Babic

86'

L. Schales← N. Wannemacher

87'

E. Mehr← M. Hauswirth

Stuttgarter

Astoria

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Y. Dreyer

69'▲C. Sanozidis←▼G. DAleo

71'▲P. Seemann←▼T. Hohloch

79'▲E. Zogjani←▼H. Eroğlu

85'▲L. Biemel←▼A. Babic

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

SanozidisSeemannZogjaniBiemelEtemiGubbeHudalla

Manager: Roberto Pinto

46'▲S. Belvari←▼J. Boziaris

63'▲L. Gainey←▼F. Wagner

86'▲L. Schales←▼N. Wannemacher

87'▲E. Mehr←▼M. Hauswirth

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

BelvariGaineySchalesMehrLaboardVonierSchön