Stuttgart U19 2–2 Nürnberg U19: Result & Stats

Stuttgart U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nürnberg U19

11/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 11Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Stuttgart U1951%

×Draw20%

Nürnberg U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgart U19Expected goals in this matchNürnberg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.67

Stuttgart U19

2.24

Nürnberg U19

1.67

Stuttgart U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 60 away

2.71

creates per match

1.98

1.36

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Stuttgart U19

2.71

Nürnberg U19

1.98

allows per match

Stuttgart U19

1.36

Nürnberg U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Nürnberg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw

71%

Stuttgart U19 or Nürnberg U19

80%

Draw or Nürnberg U19

49%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

30%

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

89%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

65%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

38%

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

81%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

50%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Nürnberg U19 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.71 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.24

Nürnberg U19 attack 1.98 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more

51%

level

20%

Nürnberg U19 scores more

29%

Stuttgart U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff