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Stuttgart U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Stuttgart U19
Stuttgart U19
CANC
10:00
Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
1/31/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 10Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Stuttgart U1941%
×Draw21%
Mainz 05 U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stuttgart U19
1.96
Mainz 05 U19
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 75 away

creates per match

Stuttgart U19
2.68
Mainz 05 U19
2.40

allows per match

Stuttgart U19
1.37
Mainz 05 U19
1.23

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par
Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw
62%
Stuttgart U19 or Mainz 05 U19
79%
Draw or Mainz 05 U19
59%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+
22%
Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals
86%
Stuttgart U19 2+ goals
58%
Stuttgart U19 3+ goals
31%
Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
85%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
56%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.68 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.96

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more
41%
level
21%
Mainz 05 U19 scores more
38%

Stuttgart U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stuttgart U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — Match Preview

Stuttgart U19 face Mainz 05 U19 on January 31, 2021 in this U19 Bundesliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stuttgart U19 host Mainz 05 U19 at Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.