Stuttgart U19 7–0 Hessen Kassel U19: Result & Stats

Stuttgart U19

FT

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hessen Kassel U19

T. Kastanaras 88', 53', 22' (pen)

M. Wagner 82'

D. Knappe 64'

R. Paula 60'

L. Reichardt 40'

12/4/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 12Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Stuttgart U1987%

×Draw8%

Hessen Kassel U195%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgart U19Expected goals in this matchHessen Kassel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.89

0.91

Stuttgart U19

3.89

Hessen Kassel U19

0.91

Stuttgart U19 creates 327% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 10 away

2.69

creates per match

0.50

1.32

allows per match

5.10

creates per match

Stuttgart U19

2.69

Hessen Kassel U19

0.50

allows per match

Stuttgart U19

1.32

Hessen Kassel U19

5.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Hessen Kassel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw

95%

Stuttgart U19 or Hessen Kassel U19

92%

Draw or Hessen Kassel U19

13%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

72%

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

98%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

89%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

72%

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

60%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

23%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

95%

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Hessen Kassel U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.69 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 5.10 → ÷2 → 3.89

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.50 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more

87%

level

8%

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

5%

Stuttgart U19 at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

T. KastanarasPenalty

40'

L. Reichardt

46'

M. Wagner← L. Laupheimer

53'

T. Kastanaras

60'

F. di Giglio← E. Seidelmann

60'

R. Paula

63'

M. Sahin← N. Winkler

64'

D. Knappe

68'

T. Trittel← M. Agyekum

72'

P. König← M. Hoppe

74'

I. Tilev← T. Leinhos

75'

L. Mestre← L. Reichardt

82'

M. Wagner

88'

T. Kastanaras

Stuttgart

Hessen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽3

Manager: N. Willig

46'▲M. Wagner←▼L. Laupheimer

63'▲M. Sahin←▼N. Winkler

72'▲P. König←▼M. Hoppe

75'▲L. Mestre←▼L. Reichardt

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

WagnerSahinKönigMestreScharnerInanAmbrosius

Manager: A. Noja

60'▲F. di Giglio←▼E. Seidelmann

68'▲T. Trittel←▼M. Agyekum

74'▲I. Tilev←▼T. Leinhos

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

GiglioTrittelTilevKalbfleisch

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgart U19 7–0 Hessen Kassel U19

Stuttgart U19 beat Hessen Kassel U19 7-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 4, 2021.

Goals: T. Kastanaras (22' pen, 53', 88'), L. Reichardt (40'), R. Paula (60'), D. Knappe (64'), M. Wagner (82').

The match was played at Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart in Stuttgart.

Stuttgart U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgart U19 7–0 Hessen Kassel U19