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Stuttgart U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Stuttgart U19
Stuttgart U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Greuther Fürth U19
Greuther Fürth U19
8/10/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 2Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Stuttgart U1962%
×Draw18%
Greuther Fürth U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stuttgart U19
2.59
Greuther Fürth U19
1.42

Stuttgart U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 62 away

creates per match

Stuttgart U19
2.71
Greuther Fürth U19
1.48

allows per match

Stuttgart U19
1.36
Greuther Fürth U19
2.47

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par
Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Greuther Fürth U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw
80%
Stuttgart U19 or Greuther Fürth U19
82%
Draw or Greuther Fürth U19
38%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+
41%
Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals
92%
Stuttgart U19 2+ goals
73%
Stuttgart U19 3+ goals
47%
Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals
76%
Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals
41%
Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)
76%
Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Greuther Fürth U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.47 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.71 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.59

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.48 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more
62%
level
18%
Greuther Fürth U19 scores more
20%

Stuttgart U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stuttgart U19 4 – 1 Greuther Fürth U19

Stuttgart U19 beat Greuther Fürth U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart in Stuttgart.