Stuttgart U19 3–1 Darmstadt 98 U19: Result & Stats

Stuttgart U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Darmstadt 98 U19

M. Wagner 21', 9'

L. Battista 4'

A. Toch 30'

9/3/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 4Rasenplatz 1 VfB Stuttgart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Stuttgart U1959%

×Draw19%

Darmstadt 98 U1922%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgart U19Expected goals in this matchDarmstadt 98 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.47

Stuttgart U19

2.46

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.47

Stuttgart U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 48 away

2.68

creates per match

1.56

1.37

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Stuttgart U19

2.68

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.56

allows per match

Stuttgart U19

1.37

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw

78%

Stuttgart U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19

81%

Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19

41%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

38%

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

91%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

70%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

44%

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

77%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

43%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.68 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

22%

Stuttgart U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

9'

21'

30'

59'

E. Widmann← L. Battista

59'

N. Winkler← S. Di Benedetto

65'

M. Borger← A. Arania

72'

E. Krasniqi← K. Kuranyi

72'

T. Barth← A. Azevedo

80'

P. König← C. Farnerud

80'

H. Held← S. Gegg

80'

L. Kamarianakis← L. Kaiser

80'

V. Turudija← N. Baier

90+1'

A. Karakus← L. Kamarianakis

Stuttgart

Darmstadt

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: N. Willig

59'▲E. Widmann←▼L. Battista

59'▲N. Winkler←▼S. Di Benedetto

72'▲E. Krasniqi←▼K. Kuranyi

72'▲T. Barth←▼A. Azevedo

80'▲P. König←▼C. Farnerud

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

WidmannWinklerKrasniqiBarthKönigNiculescuTelles-Villalobos

Manager: D. Petrowsky

65'▲M. Borger←▼A. Arania

80'▲H. Held←▼S. Gegg

80'▲L. Kamarianakis←▼L. Kaiser

80'▲V. Turudija←▼N. Baier

90+1'▲A. Karakus←▼L. Kamarianakis

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

BorgerHeldKamarianakisTurudijaKarakusRiemerBecker