Stuttgart U19 4–0 1860 München U19: Result & Stats

Stuttgart U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

1860 München U19

4/27/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 24Robert-Schlienz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Stuttgart U1956%

×Draw19%

1860 München U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgart U19Expected goals in this match1860 München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.54

Stuttgart U19

2.40

1860 München U19

1.54

Stuttgart U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 48 away

2.71

creates per match

1.71

1.36

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Stuttgart U19

2.71

1860 München U19

1.71

allows per match

Stuttgart U19

1.36

1860 München U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw

76%

Stuttgart U19 or 1860 München U19

81%

Draw or 1860 München U19

44%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

35%

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

91%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

69%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

42%

1860 München U19 1+ goals

79%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

45%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

70%

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.71 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.40

1860 München U19 attack 1.71 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more

56%

level

19%

1860 München U19 scores more

24%

Stuttgart U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff