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Sturt Lions vs Western Strikers — South Australia State League 1 2021

Sturt Lions
Sturt Lions
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Western Strikers
Western Strikers
8/3/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 21Karinya Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sturt Lions60%
×Draw20%
Western Strikers20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturt Lions
2.21
Western Strikers
1.22

Sturt Lions creates 81% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sturt Lions
2.48
Western Strikers
1.05

allows per match

Sturt Lions
1.39
Western Strikers
1.95

finishing

Sturt Lions+0.00on par
Western Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturt Lions ↓

Western Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sturt Lions or draw
80%
Sturt Lions or Western Strikers
80%
Draw or Western Strikers
40%

Winning margin

Sturt Lions wins by 2+
37%
Western Strikers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sturt Lions 1+ goals
89%
Sturt Lions 2+ goals
65%
Sturt Lions 3+ goals
38%
Western Strikers 1+ goals
70%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
34%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sturt Lions (draw refunded)
75%
Western Strikers (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturt Lions at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Western Strikers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturt Lions attack 2.48 + Western Strikers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.21

Western Strikers attack 1.05 + Sturt Lions defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sturt Lions scores more
60%
level
20%
Western Strikers scores more
20%

Sturt Lions at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sturt Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Sturt Lions 3–2 Western Strikers

Sturt Lions beat Western Strikers 3-2 in South Australia State League 1 on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Karinya Reserve in Mitcham.