Sturt Lions 6–0 Pontian Eagles: Result & Stats

Sturt Lions

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Pontian Eagles

6/21/2025

South Australia State League 1 · Round 15Karinya Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sturt Lions80%

×Draw12%

Pontian Eagles8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sturt LionsExpected goals in this matchPontian Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

0.88

Sturt Lions

3.10

Pontian Eagles

0.88

Sturt Lions creates 252% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 11 away

2.48

creates per match

0.36

1.39

allows per match

3.73

creates per match

Sturt Lions

2.48

Pontian Eagles

0.36

allows per match

Sturt Lions

1.39

Pontian Eagles

3.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sturt Lions+0.00on par

Pontian Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturt Lions ↓

Pontian Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Sturt Lions or draw

92%

Sturt Lions or Pontian Eagles

88%

Draw or Pontian Eagles

20%

Winning margin

Sturt Lions wins by 2+

61%

Pontian Eagles wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sturt Lions 1+ goals

95%

Sturt Lions 2+ goals

81%

Sturt Lions 3+ goals

58%

Pontian Eagles 1+ goals

59%

Pontian Eagles 2+ goals

22%

Pontian Eagles 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sturt Lions (draw refunded)

91%

Pontian Eagles (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturt Lions at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Pontian Eagles away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturt Lions attack 2.48 + Pontian Eagles defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 3.10

Pontian Eagles attack 0.36 + Sturt Lions defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Sturt Lions scores more

80%

level

12%

Pontian Eagles scores more

8%

Sturt Lions at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Sturt Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff