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Sturm Graz W vs Vorderland W — Frauenliga 2019

Sturm Graz W
Sturm Graz W
FT
3 – 0
Vorderland W
Vorderland W
11/2/2019FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 9Messendorf Trainingszentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sturm Graz W68%
×Draw18%
Vorderland W14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz W
2.44
Vorderland W
1.02

Sturm Graz W creates 139% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz W
2.72
Vorderland W
0.92

allows per match

Sturm Graz W
1.13
Vorderland W
2.15

finishing

Sturm Graz W+0.00on par
Vorderland W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz W ↓

Vorderland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sturm Graz W or draw
86%
Sturm Graz W or Vorderland W
82%
Draw or Vorderland W
32%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz W wins by 2+
46%
Vorderland W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sturm Graz W 1+ goals
91%
Sturm Graz W 2+ goals
70%
Sturm Graz W 3+ goals
43%
Vorderland W 1+ goals
64%
Vorderland W 2+ goals
27%
Vorderland W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz W (draw refunded)
83%
Vorderland W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz W at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

Vorderland W away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz W attack 2.72 + Vorderland W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.44

Vorderland W attack 0.92 + Sturm Graz W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sturm Graz W scores more
68%
level
18%
Vorderland W scores more
14%

Sturm Graz W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sturm Graz W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sturm Graz W vs Vorderland W

Sturm Graz W beat Vorderland W 3-0 in Frauenliga on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Messendorf Trainingszentrum in Graz.