Sturm Graz W 4–0 Rīgas FS W: Result & Stats

Sturm Graz W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rīgas FS W

8/10/2019

UEFA Champions League Women · Qualifying Round - 2Stadions Arkādija grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sturm Graz W81%

×Draw10%

Rīgas FS W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sturm Graz WExpected goals in this matchRīgas FS W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.33

1.53

Sturm Graz W

4.33

Rīgas FS W

1.53

Sturm Graz W creates 183% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

3.67

creates per match

0.40

2.67

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Sturm Graz W

3.67

Rīgas FS W

0.40

allows per match

Sturm Graz W

2.67

Rīgas FS W

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sturm Graz W+0.00on par

Rīgas FS W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz W ↓

Rīgas FS W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–18%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Sturm Graz W or draw

91%

Sturm Graz W or Rīgas FS W

90%

Draw or Rīgas FS W

19%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz W wins by 2+

65%

Rīgas FS W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sturm Graz W 1+ goals

98%

Sturm Graz W 2+ goals

92%

Sturm Graz W 3+ goals

77%

Rīgas FS W 1+ goals

78%

Rīgas FS W 2+ goals

45%

Rīgas FS W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz W (draw refunded)

90%

Rīgas FS W (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz W at home — creates 3.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Rīgas FS W away — creates 0.40, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz W attack 3.67 + Rīgas FS W defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.33

Rīgas FS W attack 0.40 + Sturm Graz W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Sturm Graz W scores more

81%

level

10%

Rīgas FS W scores more

9%

Sturm Graz W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Sturm Graz W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff