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Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC — Bundesliga 2018

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
10/26/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Round 11Merkur-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Sturm Graz42%
×Draw24%
Wolfsberger AC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz
1.58
Wolfsberger AC
1.39

Sturm Graz creates 14% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 130 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz
1.71
Wolfsberger AC
1.59

allows per match

Sturm Graz
1.19
Wolfsberger AC
1.45

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

Wolfsberger AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw
66%
Sturm Graz or Wolfsberger AC
76%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC
58%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+
21%
Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals
79%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
47%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
21%
Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
75%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
40%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
56%
Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 1.71 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.58

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.59 + Sturm Graz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sturm Graz scores more
42%
level
24%
Wolfsberger AC scores more
34%

Sturm Graz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC

Wolfsberger AC beat Sturm Graz 3-1 in Bundesliga on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Merkur-Arena in Graz.