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Sturm Graz vs SV Mattersburg — Bundesliga 2018

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
9/22/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 8Merkur-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sturm Graz53%
×Draw23%
SV Mattersburg24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz
1.81
SV Mattersburg
1.15

Sturm Graz creates 57% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz
1.72
SV Mattersburg
1.13

allows per match

Sturm Graz
1.18
SV Mattersburg
1.90

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par
SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

SV Mattersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw
76%
Sturm Graz or SV Mattersburg
77%
Draw or SV Mattersburg
47%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+
29%
SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals
84%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
54%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
27%
SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
68%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
32%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
69%
SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.18 · 126 matches

SV Mattersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 1.72 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.81

SV Mattersburg attack 1.13 + Sturm Graz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sturm Graz scores more
53%
level
23%
SV Mattersburg scores more
24%

Sturm Graz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sturm Graz vs SV Mattersburg

SV Mattersburg beat Sturm Graz 2-1 in Bundesliga on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Merkur-Arena in Graz.