Sturm Graz 1–6 Pogon Szczecin: Result & Stats

Sturm Graz

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Pogon Szczecin

1/25/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bellis Hotel Sports Center - Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sturm Graz48%

×Draw21%

Pogon Szczecin30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sturm GrazExpected goals in this matchPogon Szczecin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.63

Sturm Graz

2.09

Pogon Szczecin

1.63

Sturm Graz creates 28% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

2.30

creates per match

1.56

1.70

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Sturm Graz

2.30

Pogon Szczecin

1.56

allows per match

Sturm Graz

1.70

Pogon Szczecin

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

Pogon Szczecin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw

70%

Sturm Graz or Pogon Szczecin

79%

Draw or Pogon Szczecin

52%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+

28%

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals

88%

Sturm Graz 2+ goals

62%

Sturm Graz 3+ goals

34%

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

80%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

48%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)

61%

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 2.30 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.09

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.56 + Sturm Graz defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sturm Graz scores more

48%

level

21%

Pogon Szczecin scores more

30%

Sturm Graz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sturm Graz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff