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Sturm Graz vs MTK Budapest — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
CANC
15:30
MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest
1/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Messendorf Trainingszentrum Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sturm Graz32%
×Draw20%
MTK Budapest48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz
1.85
MTK Budapest
2.30

MTK Budapest creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz
2.30
MTK Budapest
2.90

allows per match

Sturm Graz
1.70
MTK Budapest
1.40

finishing

Sturm Graz+0.00on par
MTK Budapest+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz ↓

MTK Budapest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Sturm Graz or draw
52%
Sturm Graz or MTK Budapest
80%
Draw or MTK Budapest
68%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz wins by 2+
16%
MTK Budapest wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sturm Graz 1+ goals
84%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
55%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
28%
MTK Budapest 1+ goals
90%
MTK Budapest 2+ goals
67%
MTK Budapest 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
40%
MTK Budapest (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

MTK Budapest away — creates 2.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz attack 2.30 + MTK Budapest defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.85

MTK Budapest attack 2.90 + Sturm Graz defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sturm Graz scores more
32%
level
20%
MTK Budapest scores more
48%

MTK Budapest at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sturm Graz face MTK Budapest (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Sturm Graz hosting MTK Budapest. Match starts January 27, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sturm Graz host MTK Budapest at Messendorf Trainingszentrum Kunstrasen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.