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Sturm Graz II vs Voitsberg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sturm Graz II
Sturm Graz II
FT
0 – 2
Voitsberg
Voitsberg
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Messendorf Trainingszentrum Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sturm Graz II45%
×Draw22%
Voitsberg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sturm Graz II
1.91
Voitsberg
1.62

Sturm Graz II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sturm Graz II
2.27
Voitsberg
1.91

allows per match

Sturm Graz II
1.33
Voitsberg
1.55

finishing

Sturm Graz II+0.00on par
Voitsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sturm Graz II ↓

Voitsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sturm Graz II or draw
67%
Sturm Graz II or Voitsberg
78%
Draw or Voitsberg
55%

Winning margin

Sturm Graz II wins by 2+
25%
Voitsberg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sturm Graz II 1+ goals
85%
Sturm Graz II 2+ goals
57%
Sturm Graz II 3+ goals
30%
Voitsberg 1+ goals
80%
Voitsberg 2+ goals
48%
Voitsberg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sturm Graz II (draw refunded)
57%
Voitsberg (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sturm Graz II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Voitsberg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sturm Graz II attack 2.27 + Voitsberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.91

Voitsberg attack 1.91 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sturm Graz II scores more
45%
level
22%
Voitsberg scores more
33%

Sturm Graz II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sturm Graz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sturm Graz II vs Voitsberg

Voitsberg beat Sturm Graz II 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Messendorf Trainingszentrum Kunstrasen in Graz.