Sturm Graz II vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 50+ matches
Sturm Graz II51%
Gurten27%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sturm Graz II creates 41% more chances
Season form · 50 home / 110 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sturm Graz II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sturm Graz II at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.22 · 50 matches
Gurten away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sturm Graz II attack 2.76 + Gurten defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.96
Gurten attack 1.56 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Sturm Graz II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Sturm Graz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Gurten substitutes
Head to Head
VoitsbergGurten
Oedt
LASK Juniors
Deutschlandsberger SC
Kalsdorf
Velden
SV Lafnitz
Wallern / Marienkirchen
Weiz
Wolfsberger AC II
Wohnbau Dietach
Gleisdorf 09
Ried II
Treibach
St. AnnaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sturm Graz II host Gurten on Tuesday, 1 October 2019 at 17:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - Mitte 2018/2019 season.
Regionalliga - Mitte: Sturm Graz II 1–2 Gurten
Gurten beat Sturm Graz II 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 1, 2019.
Goals: D. Bauer (24'), S. Zirnitzer (50'), M. Krienzer (68' pen).
The match was played at Messendorf Trainingszentrum in Graz.