Gurten vs Sturm Graz II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 49+ matches
Gurten39%
Sturm Graz II37%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 110 home / 49 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gurten ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gurten at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches
Sturm Graz II away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gurten attack 1.75 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.53
Sturm Graz II attack 2.14 + Gurten defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Gurten at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
VoitsbergGurten
Oedt
LASK Juniors
Deutschlandsberger SC
Kalsdorf
Velden
SV Lafnitz
Wallern / Marienkirchen
Weiz
Wolfsberger AC II
Wohnbau Dietach
Gleisdorf 09
Ried II
Treibach
St. AnnaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Gurten host Sturm Graz II on Saturday, 11 April 2020 at 00:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - Mitte 2018/2019 season.
Gurten vs Sturm Graz II — Match Preview
Gurten face Sturm Graz II on April 11, 2020 in this Regionalliga - Mitte fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Gurten host Sturm Graz II at Park21-Arena Gurten.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.