Sturm Graz II vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 49+ matches
Sturm Graz II58%
Bad Gleichenberg23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sturm Graz II creates 64% more chances
Season form · 49 home / 75 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over74
- Under26
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes70
- No30
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sturm Graz II ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sturm Graz II at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 49 matches
Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sturm Graz II attack 2.80 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.42
Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Sturm Graz II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Sturm Graz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Rapid Wien II
Ebreichsdorf
Wiener SC
Stripfing
Team Wiener Linien
Wiener Viktoria
Mattersburg II
Draßburg
SC Wiener Neustadt
Neusiedl
Mauerwerk
Bruck/Leitha
Traiskirchen
Admira II
LeobendorfSturm Graz II
Allerheiligen
Hertha
GurtenBad Gleichenberg
Wolfsberger AC II
Union Vöcklamarkt
St. Anna
Weiz
Gleisdorf 09
Deutschlandsberger SC
Kalsdorf
Ried II
Wolfsberg
Stadl-Paura
Wels
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sturm Graz II host Bad Gleichenberg on Saturday, 23 October 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - Mitte 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Sturm Graz II vs Bad Gleichenberg
Sturm Graz II and Bad Gleichenberg drew 3-3 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 23, 2021.
The match was played at Messendorf Trainingszentrum in Graz.