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Stupčanica Olovo vs Vis Kosova — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
FT
3 – 3
Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
8/28/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Gradski stadion Olovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Stupčanica Olovo58%
×Draw22%
Vis Kosova20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stupčanica Olovo
1.90
Vis Kosova
1.03

Stupčanica Olovo creates 84% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 61 away

creates per match

Stupčanica Olovo
2.11
Vis Kosova
1.21

allows per match

Stupčanica Olovo
0.86
Vis Kosova
1.70

finishing

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par
Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stupčanica Olovo ↓

Vis Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stupčanica Olovo or draw
80%
Stupčanica Olovo or Vis Kosova
78%
Draw or Vis Kosova
42%

Winning margin

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
34%
Vis Kosova wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
85%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
56%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
29%
Vis Kosova 1+ goals
64%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
28%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
74%
Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stupčanica Olovo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Vis Kosova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stupčanica Olovo attack 2.11 + Vis Kosova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vis Kosova attack 1.21 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stupčanica Olovo scores more
58%
level
22%
Vis Kosova scores more
20%

Stupčanica Olovo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stupčanica Olovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stupčanica Olovo vs Vis Kosova

Stupčanica Olovo and Vis Kosova drew 3-3 in 1st League - FBiH on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Olovo in Olovo.