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Stupčanica Olovo vs Radnički Lukavac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Radnički Lukavac
Radnički Lukavac
3/9/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Gradski stadion Olovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Stupčanica Olovo66%
×Draw18%
Radnički Lukavac15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stupčanica Olovo
2.34
Radnički Lukavac
1.03

Stupčanica Olovo creates 127% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

creates per match

Stupčanica Olovo
2.11
Radnički Lukavac
1.20

allows per match

Stupčanica Olovo
0.86
Radnički Lukavac
2.57

finishing

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par
Radnički Lukavac+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stupčanica Olovo ↓

Radnički Lukavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Stupčanica Olovo or draw
85%
Stupčanica Olovo or Radnički Lukavac
82%
Draw or Radnički Lukavac
34%

Winning margin

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
43%
Radnički Lukavac wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
90%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
67%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
41%
Radnički Lukavac 1+ goals
64%
Radnički Lukavac 2+ goals
28%
Radnički Lukavac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
81%
Radnički Lukavac (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stupčanica Olovo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Radnički Lukavac away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stupčanica Olovo attack 2.11 + Radnički Lukavac defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.34

Radnički Lukavac attack 1.20 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Stupčanica Olovo scores more
66%
level
18%
Radnički Lukavac scores more
15%

Stupčanica Olovo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Stupčanica Olovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Stupčanica Olovo 2–0 Radnički Lukavac

Stupčanica Olovo beat Radnički Lukavac 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Olovo in Olovo.