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Stupčanica Olovo vs Gornji Rahić — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
6/9/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 30Gradski stadion Olovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Stupčanica Olovo65%
×Draw19%
Gornji Rahić16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stupčanica Olovo
2.29
Gornji Rahić
1.03

Stupčanica Olovo creates 122% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 29 away

creates per match

Stupčanica Olovo
2.11
Gornji Rahić
1.21

allows per match

Stupčanica Olovo
0.86
Gornji Rahić
2.48

finishing

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par
Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stupčanica Olovo ↓

Gornji Rahić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stupčanica Olovo or draw
84%
Stupčanica Olovo or Gornji Rahić
81%
Draw or Gornji Rahić
35%

Winning margin

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
42%
Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
90%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
66%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
40%
Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
64%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
28%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
81%
Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stupčanica Olovo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stupčanica Olovo attack 2.11 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.29

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Stupčanica Olovo scores more
65%
level
19%
Gornji Rahić scores more
16%

Stupčanica Olovo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Stupčanica Olovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Stupčanica Olovo 2–3 Gornji Rahić

Gornji Rahić beat Stupčanica Olovo 3-2 in 1st League - FBiH on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Olovo in Olovo.