Studentski Grad 1–0 Teleoptik: Result & Stats

Studentski Grad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Teleoptik

5/17/2024

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 28Stadion FK Bežanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Studentski Grad34%

×Draw27%

Teleoptik39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Studentski GradExpected goals in this matchTeleoptik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.30

Studentski Grad

1.21

Teleoptik

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 98 away

1.27

creates per match

1.39

1.22

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Studentski Grad

1.27

Teleoptik

1.39

allows per match

Studentski Grad

1.22

Teleoptik

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Studentski Grad+0.00on par

Teleoptik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Studentski Grad ↓

Teleoptik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Studentski Grad or draw

61%

Studentski Grad or Teleoptik

73%

Draw or Teleoptik

66%

Winning margin

Studentski Grad wins by 2+

15%

Teleoptik wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Studentski Grad 1+ goals

70%

Studentski Grad 2+ goals

34%

Studentski Grad 3+ goals

12%

Teleoptik 1+ goals

73%

Teleoptik 2+ goals

37%

Teleoptik 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Studentski Grad (draw refunded)

47%

Teleoptik (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Studentski Grad at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 77 matches

Teleoptik away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Studentski Grad attack 1.27 + Teleoptik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Teleoptik attack 1.39 + Studentski Grad defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Studentski Grad scores more

34%

level

27%

Teleoptik scores more

39%

Teleoptik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Teleoptik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff