Studentski Grad 1–0 Sindjelic Beograd

Studentski Grad

FT

1 – 0

Sindjelic Beograd

3/3/2023

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 16Stadion FK Bežanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Studentski Grad43%

×Draw28%

Sindjelic Beograd29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Studentski GradExpected goals in this matchSindjelic Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.04

Studentski Grad

1.32

Sindjelic Beograd

1.04

Studentski Grad creates 27% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 49 away

1.27

creates per match

0.86

1.22

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Studentski Grad

1.27

Sindjelic Beograd

0.86

allows per match

Studentski Grad

1.22

Sindjelic Beograd

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Studentski Grad+0.00on par

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Studentski Grad ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Studentski Grad or draw

71%

Studentski Grad or Sindjelic Beograd

72%

Draw or Sindjelic Beograd

57%

Winning margin

Studentski Grad wins by 2+

20%

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Studentski Grad 1+ goals

73%

Studentski Grad 2+ goals

38%

Studentski Grad 3+ goals

15%

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals

65%

Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals

28%

Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Studentski Grad (draw refunded)

59%

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Studentski Grad at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 77 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Studentski Grad attack 1.27 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Studentski Grad defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Studentski Grad scores more

43%

level

28%

Sindjelic Beograd scores more

29%

Studentski Grad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Studentski Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff