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Studentski Grad vs RAD — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Studentski Grad
Studentski Grad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RAD
RAD
8/12/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 1Stadion FK Bežanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Studentski Grad62%
×Draw21%
RAD17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Studentski Grad
2.00
RAD
0.95

Studentski Grad creates 111% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Studentski Grad
1.27
RAD
0.67

allows per match

Studentski Grad
1.22
RAD
2.73

finishing

Studentski Grad+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Studentski Grad ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Studentski Grad or draw
83%
Studentski Grad or RAD
79%
Draw or RAD
38%

Winning margin

Studentski Grad wins by 2+
37%
RAD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Studentski Grad 1+ goals
86%
Studentski Grad 2+ goals
59%
Studentski Grad 3+ goals
32%
RAD 1+ goals
61%
RAD 2+ goals
25%
RAD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Studentski Grad (draw refunded)
78%
RAD (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Studentski Grad at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 77 matches

RAD away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Studentski Grad attack 1.27 + RAD defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.00

RAD attack 0.67 + Studentski Grad defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Studentski Grad scores more
62%
level
21%
RAD scores more
17%

Studentski Grad at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Studentski Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Studentski Grad 1–0 RAD

Studentski Grad beat RAD 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Bežanija in Beograd.