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Studentski Grad vs Buducnost Dobanovci — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Studentski Grad
Studentski Grad
FT
1 – 0
Buducnost Dobanovci
Buducnost Dobanovci
3/22/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 19Stadion FK Bežanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Studentski Grad40%
×Draw27%
Buducnost Dobanovci33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Studentski Grad
1.32
Buducnost Dobanovci
1.16

Studentski Grad creates 14% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 43 away

creates per match

Studentski Grad
1.27
Buducnost Dobanovci
1.09

allows per match

Studentski Grad
1.22
Buducnost Dobanovci
1.37

finishing

Studentski Grad+0.00on par
Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Studentski Grad ↓

Buducnost Dobanovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Studentski Grad or draw
67%
Studentski Grad or Buducnost Dobanovci
73%
Draw or Buducnost Dobanovci
60%

Winning margin

Studentski Grad wins by 2+
18%
Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Studentski Grad 1+ goals
73%
Studentski Grad 2+ goals
38%
Studentski Grad 3+ goals
15%
Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals
69%
Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals
32%
Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Studentski Grad (draw refunded)
55%
Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Studentski Grad at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 77 matches

Buducnost Dobanovci away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Studentski Grad attack 1.27 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.09 + Studentski Grad defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Studentski Grad scores more
40%
level
27%
Buducnost Dobanovci scores more
33%

Studentski Grad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Studentski Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Studentski Grad 1–0 Buducnost Dobanovci

Studentski Grad beat Buducnost Dobanovci 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Bežanija in Beograd.